The Ukraine-Russia war has cost the U.S. billions in military aid and has impacted global energy markets. As the conflict enters its third year, many are asking whether the U.S. involvement is prolonging the war, placing much of the blame for the war’s escalation on U.S. rather than fostering peace. The concern is that the U.S., by expanding NATO and supporting Ukraine, provoked Russia into its 2022 invasion, thereby getting involved in a war that was never ours to fight. His views, combined with the ever-growing $150 billion in U.S. funding to Ukraine, have sparked widespread debate about what the U.S. stands to gain or lose by prolonging the conflict. This article delves into the origins of the war, what each side seeks, and how U.S. foreign policy has played a key role in escalating the conflict. It also examines the financial costs, particularly for American taxpayers, and explores the risks of prolonging the war under the current administration.
Russia’s Position: Security Fears and NATO Expansion
Russia’s security concerns have been a central issue since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Many analysts agree that Russia views NATO’s eastward expansion as a threat. NATO has grown from 16 members in 1991 to 31 members in 2023, including countries like Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania, which are close to Russia’s borders . Russian President Vladimir Putin has consistently framed the inclusion of Ukraine in NATO as a red line, claiming that it poses an existential threat to Russian security.
Putin has stated that Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine was a defensive move to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO. Russia’s initial demands included guarantees that Ukraine would remain neutral and not join the alliance. In December 2021, Russia proposed a security treaty to the U.S. and NATO, which called for stopping further NATO expansion, particularly into Ukraine. These demands were rejected .
Ukraine’s Fight: Sovereignty and Independence
Ukraine’s government, led by President Volodymyr Zelensky, has been resolute in its defense of sovereignty. Since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the ongoing conflict in the Donbas region, Ukraine has been inching closer to the West, with many Ukrainians supporting NATO membership. In February 2019, Ukraine amended its constitution to make joining NATO a strategic priority. Zelensky’s government views the war as a fight for national survival, seeking to preserve Ukraine’s independence from Russian domination.
Ukraine has received strong backing from the West, especially from the U.S. The Biden administration alone has provided Ukraine with $113 billion in aid as of early 2024, including military assistance, financial support, and humanitarian aid . Zelensky has repeatedly called for continued Western support, citing Russia’s aggression as a threat to global democracy.
The U.S. Role: Escalation and Financial Costs
The U.S. has been the largest financial supporter of Ukraine since the war began, committing nearly $150 billion in military and humanitarian aid as of mid-2024 . This assistance has come in the form of advanced weaponry such as HIMARS rocket systems, Javelin anti-tank missiles, and air defense systems like the Patriot missile batteries.
Critics argue that the U.S. involvement has escalated the conflict, turning it into a proxy war between NATO and Russia. Statements from U.S. officials have reinforced the perception that the U.S. is seeking to weaken Russia. For instance, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said in April 2022 that the goal was to “weaken Russia to the degree that it can’t do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine” . This has led to questions about whether the U.S. is interested in a negotiated settlement or simply in degrading Russia’s military capabilities.
Economic Fallout: Oil Prices and Energy Policy
The war has significantly impacted global oil and gas markets, with sanctions on Russian energy exports leading to higher prices. The U.S. and its allies imposed a ban on Russian oil imports, which resulted in supply disruptions. Russia, which supplies about 10% of the world’s oil, has been able to reroute some of its exports to countries like China and India, but the overall reduction in supply has driven global prices higher .
As a result, U.S. consumers have felt the pinch at the gas pump. Gasoline prices in the U.S. soared to an average of $5 per gallon in mid-2022 and remained elevated into 2024, contributing to broader inflationary pressures . To counteract the supply disruptions, the U.S. has increased its oil production, becoming a net exporter of crude oil for the first time in decades. However, this has done little to lower domestic gas prices, leading to frustration among American consumers.
The U.S. has also been forced to dip into its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), releasing over 180 million barrels of oil between 2022 and 2023 to help stabilize prices. But the effectiveness of these measures has been limited, and the SPR is now at its lowest level in 40 years .
The Risks of Prolonging the Conflict
Many experts warn that the U.S. risks prolonging the war by continuing to provide military aid to Ukraine without a clear exit strategy. The Biden administration has not laid out a definitive plan for how the war will end or what victory looks like. Instead, the focus has been on supporting Ukraine “as long as it takes,” according to President Joe Biden . This open-ended commitment raises concerns about a prolonged conflict with no clear resolution in sight.
Moreover, the economic costs of the war are becoming increasingly burdensome. With inflation already high and the U.S. debt reaching $33 trillion in 2024 , many Americans are questioning whether continued financial support for Ukraine is sustainable. Public support for Ukraine aid has also begun to wane, with a Pew Research Center poll from early 2024 showing that only 50% of Americans now support additional military assistance, down from 70% in 2022 .
The Harris-Biden Administration’s Approach: A Dangerous Path?
Critics argue that the Harris-Biden administration’s approach to the Ukraine war is fraught with risks. While the administration claims it is defending democracy, there are concerns that it is pushing the world closer to a dangerous confrontation with Russia. With Russia possessing the world’s largest stockpile of nuclear weapons, any escalation could lead to catastrophic consequences.
There are also fears that the administration’s focus on weakening Russia may be part of a broader geopolitical strategy that risks further destabilizing Europe and increasing global tensions. The war has already pushed Russia closer to China, creating a new axis of power that could challenge U.S. dominance in the long term .
Conclusion: The Need for Diplomacy
The Ukraine-Russia war has dragged on for more than two years, with no end in sight. The U.S. must rethink its role in the conflict and prioritize diplomacy over military aid. Prolonging the war only serves to deepen the suffering of Ukrainians, strain the American economy, and increase the risk of a broader global conflict.
While supporting Ukraine’s sovereignty is important, the U.S. must also recognize the limits of its involvement. A negotiated settlement that preserves Ukraine’s independence while addressing Russia’s security concerns is the only path to lasting peace. It is time for the U.S. to lead the way toward ending this war before the costs become even greater.
